Teardowns
Treasury risk teardowns
Independent, unsolicited risk analyses of public crypto treasuries and portfolios, produced with Sentralis from publicly disclosed positions. Every figure is a model estimate under stated assumptions; nothing here is advice. Free teardowns of other public treasuries on request
DAO & protocol treasuries
| Target | Teardown | Published | Headline finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| dYdX Treasury SubDAO | dYdX Treasury SubDAO — Independent Risk Teardown | Cash convertible within a week fell to ~$2.3M while the staked DYDX position rose to ~18 times daily venue volume; the modeled 1-in-20 year is −52% to −58% | |
| Arbitrum DAO (Treasury Management Portfolio) | Arbitrum DAO Treasury Management Portfolio — Independent Risk Teardown | 34.1% of the book sits one protocol away from the IPS's 35% cap; the 7-day liquidity rung passes at 65.9% or fails at 49.2% depending on two redemption mechanisms | |
| Compound DAO | Compound DAO Treasury — Independent Risk Teardown | 70% of the verified book lives inside Compound's own stack; the modeled protocol event costs a quarter of the treasury | |
| Cardano | Stress Testing the Cardano Treasury: Cost of 100% ADA, on Diversification, and on Converting | The simulated 1-in-20 bad year lands anywhere between −73% and −94%, depending on model choice | |
| ENS DAO | ENS Endowment: An Independent Risk Teardown | Probability of ending the year below the $49.34M policy floor: 12% to 39%, depending on model choice | |
| GnosisDAO | GnosisDAO Treasury — Independent Risk Teardown | Modeled stress losses span a $20–90M band, against a one-day VaR of about $5M |
Public figures & entity wallets
| Target | Teardown | Published | Headline finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitalik Buterin (vitalik.eth) | The Most-Watched Book in Crypto: A Risk Teardown of Vitalik Buterin's Public Wallets | The simulated 1-in-20 year lands between −65% and −81% depending on model choice; the 16,384-ETH funding commitment buys $31.5M today and $5.9M at the pessimist model's 1-in-20 |